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Author:

Li, Jingyu (Li, Jingyu.) | Cheng, Lu (Cheng, Lu.) | Zheng, Xiaolong (Zheng, Xiaolong.) | Wang, Fei-Yue (Wang, Fei-Yue.)

Indexed by:

EI Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

By regarding the Chinese financial and economic sectors as a system, this article studies the stock volatility spillover in the system and explores its effects on the overall performance of the macroeconomy in China. The recent outbreak of COVID-19, U.S.-China trade friction, and three historical financial turbulences are involved to distinguish the changes in the spillover in these distinct crises, which has seldom been unveiled in the literature. By considering that the stock volatility spillover may vary over distinct timescales, the spillovers are disclosed through innovatively constructing the multi-scale spillover networks, followed by connectedness computation, based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and generalized vector autoregression (GVAR) process. Our empirical analysis first demonstrates the different levels of increases in the total sectoral volatility spillover and changes in the roles of the sectors in the system under the aforementioned crises. Besides, the increases in the sectoral spillover in the long-term are verified to negatively impact the macroeconomy and can thereby act as warning signals.

Keyword:

stock volatility spillover financial and economic system variational mode decomposition (VMD) COVID-19 network analysis

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Jingyu]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Cheng, Lu]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zheng, Xiaolong]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Fei-Yue]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Zheng, Xiaolong]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Fei-Yue]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Zheng, Xiaolong]Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SYSTEMS

ISSN: 2329-924X

Year: 2023

Issue: 1

Volume: 10

Page: 269-284

5 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count: 16

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 1

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