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Author:

Sun, Ruirui (Sun, Ruirui.) | Reheman, Yimingjiang (Reheman, Yimingjiang.) | Wang, Xiaoling (Wang, Xiaoling.) | Fei, Kaixuan (Fei, Kaixuan.) | Zhou, Jinjun (Zhou, Jinjun.) | Jiao, Ding (Jiao, Ding.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Such complex causative factors in current failure probability models are represented by simply random uncertainty and completely independent or correlation of failure modes, which can often limit the model utility. In this study, we developed a methodology to construct failure probability models for high fill levees, incorporating the identification of uncertainties and an analysis of failure modes. Based on quantification of stochastic-grey-fuzzy uncertainties, probability analysis involved with overtopping, instability and seepage failure modes was implemented combined with probability and non-probability methods. Given that the interaction among failure modes typically exhibits nonlinear behavior, rather than linear correlation or complete independence, a simple methodology for the binary Copula function was established and implemented in MATLAB. This methodology was applied to the high fill segments of a long-distance water transfer project characterized by high population density. It shows that the failure probability of a single failure mode is overestimated when uncertainties are not considered, because of the randomness and fuzziness of some parameters and the greyness of information. Meanwhile, it is found that the magnitude of failure probability related to levee breach is overestimated without respect to failure modes correlation, especially when the probabilities of seepage and instability are both significant and closely aligned.

Keyword:

Long-distance water transfer project Open channel levee Failure probability model Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches Natural and epistemic uncertainty Copula method

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Sun, Ruirui]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Reheman, Yimingjiang]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Fei, Kaixuan]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhou, Jinjun]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Jiao, Ding]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Xiaoling]Tianjin Univ, State Key Lab Hydraul Engn Simulat & Safety, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Sun, Ruirui]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;

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Source :

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

ISSN: 2045-2322

Year: 2024

Issue: 1

Volume: 14

4 . 6 0 0

JCR@2022

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count:

SCOPUS Cited Count:

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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