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作者:

Tan, Qiao-feng (Tan, Qiao-feng.) | Wang, Xu (Wang, Xu.) | Liu, Pan (Liu, Pan.) | Lei, Xiao-hui (Lei, Xiao-hui.) | Cai, Si-yu (Cai, Si-yu.) | Wang, Hao (Wang, Hao.) | Ji, Yi (Ji, Yi.)

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摘要:

The dynamic control bound of flood limited water level (FLWL) is a fundamental and key element for implementing reservoir FLWL dynamic control. Due to the uncertainty of the inflow and the dimensional increase of the reservoirs, the calculation of the dynamic control bound of FLWL becomes more and more complicated. A new model that considers capacity compensation regulation and the uncertainty of flood spatial pattern (FSP) for a serial multipurpose reservoir system is developed to calculate the dynamic control bound of FLWL. This model consists of three modules: a compensation regulation module to analyze the feasibility to raise the FLWL and calculate the probable maximum upper bound of the FLWL, a risk control module containing a risk constraint to control flood risk and a Copula function to describe the uncertainty of the FSP, and a simulation operation module to simulate the flood control operation for cascade reservoirs. The proposed model was applied to Pankou-Huanglongtan cascade reservoirs in Du River basin. The application results showed that: 1) the proposed model could give a sufficient consideration about the uncertainty of the FSP, thus a safe and reasonable dynamic control bound of FLWL was derived. 2) the upper FLWL of Huanglongtan reservoir could rise up to 247.64 m from 247.00 m without increasing flood control risk and Huanglongtan reservoir could generate 9 and 7 billion kW.h extra hydropower energy during flood season in wet year 2000 and in dry year 1994, respectively.

关键词:

Capacity compensation Dynamic control bound Uncertainty Flood spatial pattern Flood limited water level

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Tan, Qiao-feng]Sichuan Univ, Coll Water Resources & Hydropower, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Xu]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle Riv B, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lei, Xiao-hui]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle Riv B, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Cai, Si-yu]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle Riv B, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Hao]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle Riv B, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Liu, Pan]Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Ji, Yi]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Key Lab Beijing Water Qual Sci & Water Environ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Wang, Xu]China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle Riv B, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China

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来源 :

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

ISSN: 0920-4741

年份: 2017

期: 1

卷: 31

页码: 143-158

4 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:228

中科院分区:2

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 29

SCOPUS被引频次: 30

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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