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作者:

Chen, Dongsheng (Chen, Dongsheng.) (学者:陈东升) | Xu, Tingting (Xu, Tingting.) | Li, Yue (Li, Yue.) | Zhou, Ying (Zhou, Ying.) | Lang, Jianlei (Lang, Jianlei.) (学者:郎建垒) | Liu, Xiangxue (Liu, Xiangxue.) | Shi, Huading (Shi, Huading.)

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EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

In this study, a hybrid approach of combining numerical prediction with statistical analysis was proposed to forecast high-PM10 (aerosol particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 mu m) concentration events in Beijing, China. This approach was used to forecast the daily PM10 in Beijing from January 1 to December 30, 2013. The WRF-CMAQ modeling system was also applied to simulate Beijing's PM10 in the same period. The performance of the two methods was then assessed according to the mean bias (MB), normalized mean bias (NMB), normalized mean gross error (NME), mean normalized bias (MNB), mean normalized gross error (MNE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The results demonstrate that both methods perform well during low-PM10 concentration periods (PM10 concentration < 250 mu g/m(3)), the MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for hybrid approach during low-PM10 concentration periods were 26.15, 24.88%, 41.94%, 43.23%, 56.35% and 61.67, respectively. The MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for CMAQ during low-PM10 concentration periods were -6.04, 57.47%, 41.49%, 21.52%, 55.64% and 60.11, respectively. While the MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for CMAQ during high-PM10 concentration periods (PM10 concentration >= 250 mu g/m(3)) were -162.87, -50.37%, 50.37%, -49.86%, 49.86% and 175.93, respectively. The MB, NMB, NME, MNB, MNE and RMSE for hybrid approach during high-PM10 concentration periods were -30.3, -9.37%, 23.21%, -8.21%, 24.25% and 97.37, respectively. The hybrid approach shows significant improvement in accuracy during high-PM10 concentration periods.

关键词:

Air pollution Forecast system Numerical simulation Particulate matter Statistical analysis

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Dongsheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xu, Tingting]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhou, Ying]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lang, Jianlei]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Liu, Xiangxue]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Li, Yue]Minist Transport, Transport Planning & Res Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Shi, Huading]Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 陈东升

    [Chen, Dongsheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Beijing Reg Air Pollut Control, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

AEROSOL AND AIR QUALITY RESEARCH

ISSN: 1680-8584

年份: 2015

期: 4

卷: 15

页码: 1325-1337

4 . 0 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:182

JCR分区:2

中科院分区:3

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 8

SCOPUS被引频次: 10

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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