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作者:

Zhong, Shiquan (Zhong, Shiquan.) | Hu, Juanjuan (Hu, Juanjuan.) | Ke, Shuiping (Ke, Shuiping.) | Wang, Xuelian (Wang, Xuelian.) | Zhao, Jingxian (Zhao, Jingxian.) | Yao, Baozhen (Yao, Baozhen.)

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Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Effective bus travel time prediction is essential in transit operation system. An improved support vector machine (SVM) is applied in this paper to predict bus travel time and then the efficiency of the improved SVM is checked. The improved SVM is the combination of traditional SVM, Grubbs' test method and an adaptive algorithm for bus travel-time prediction. Since error data exists in the collected data, Grubbs' test method is used for removing outliers from input data before applying the traditional SVM model. Besides, to decrease the influence of the historical data in different stages on the forecast result of the traditional SVM, an adaptive algorithm is adopted to dynamically decrease the forecast error. Finally, the proposed approach is tested with the data of No. 232 bus route in Shenyang. The results show that the improved SVM has good prediction accuracy and practicality.

关键词:

support vector machine regression Grubbs' test method bus travel time prediction adaptive algorithm

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhong, Shiquan]Tianjin Univ, Coll Management & Econ, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Ke, Shuiping]Tianjin Univ, Coll Management & Econ, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Hu, Juanjuan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing 100022, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Hu, Juanjuan]Transport Management Inst, Minist Transport Peoples Republ China, Beijing 101601, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Xuelian]Hebei Univ Technol, Sch Management, Tianjin 300130, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Zhao, Jingxian]Tianjin Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Tianjin, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Ke, Shuiping]Tianjin Univ, Coll Management & Econ, Tianjin 300072, Peoples R China

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来源 :

PROMET-TRAFFIC & TRANSPORTATION

ISSN: 0353-5320

年份: 2015

期: 4

卷: 27

页码: 291-300

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:174

JCR分区:4

中科院分区:4

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 6

SCOPUS被引频次: 10

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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