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作者:

Gu, Xin (Gu, Xin.) | Abdel-Aty, Mohamed (Abdel-Aty, Mohamed.) | Lee, Jaeyoung (Lee, Jaeyoung.) | Xiang, Qiaojun (Xiang, Qiaojun.) | Ma, Yongfeng (Ma, Yongfeng.)

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SSCI

摘要:

Interchanges are important highway facilities by connecting two or more freeways/expressways; however, it has been considered more dangerous than basic segments because of drivers' decision-making to stay or exit, weaving, variations in speeds, etc. In this study, we aim at contributing to the literature by using a quasi-induced exposure method and logistic regression modeling approach to identify contributing factors associated with the risk of causing an interchange crash. To this end, the 2014 traffic crash data, roadway and drivers' characteristics were collected from Florida. The modeling results indicate that drivers' age, gender, distraction, alcohol, and other factors have statistically significant effects. In addition, the finding suggests that drivers are more likely to cause crashes at cloverleaf and direct connection interchanges than at diamond interchanges. Furthermore, a support vector machine (SVM) model was applied to compare its predictability with the logistic regression model, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted. From the comparison of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the two approaches, it shows that the SVM model outperforms the logistic regression model. It is expected that the findings would help establish effective strategies to reduce traffic crashes at interchanges by targeted education, engineering, and enforcement.

关键词:

Interchanges logistic regression quasi-induced exposure support vector machine traffic crashes

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Gu, Xin]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Key Lab Traff Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Abdel-Aty, Mohamed]Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816 USA
  • [ 3 ] [Lee, Jaeyoung]Cent South Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat Engn, Changsha, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Xiang, Qiaojun]Southeast Univ, Sch Transportat, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Urban Traff, Jiangsu Key Lab Urban ITS, Si Pai Lou 2, Nanjing 210096, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ma, Yongfeng]Southeast Univ, Sch Transportat, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Urban Traff, Jiangsu Key Lab Urban ITS, Si Pai Lou 2, Nanjing 210096, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Xiang, Qiaojun]Southeast Univ, Sch Transportat, Jiangsu Collaborat Innovat Ctr Modern Urban Traff, Jiangsu Key Lab Urban ITS, Si Pai Lou 2, Nanjing 210096, Peoples R China

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来源 :

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION SAFETY & SECURITY

ISSN: 1943-9962

年份: 2020

JCR分区:3

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 7

SCOPUS被引频次: 7

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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