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Author:

Wang, Chao (Wang, Chao.) | Zhang, Xinyi (Zhang, Xinyi.) | Wang, Minggang (Wang, Minggang.) | Lim, Ming K. (Lim, Ming K..) | Ghadimi, Pezhman (Ghadimi, Pezhman.)

Indexed by:

SSCI EI Scopus

Abstract:

The copper prices in international trade markets are volatile. An accurate copper price prediction may guide commodity trading and firm profits in the copper industry. In this paper, a hybrid predictive technique combining complex network and traditional artificial neural network (ANN) techniques is developed for copper price forecasting. This technique first transforms the original price time series to a price volatility network (PVN) and extracts the volatility characteristics from the topological structure of the PVN. After the original data are reconstructed, three widely used ANN techniques, the BPNN, RBFNN, and ELM, are applied to forecast the future copper price. To examine the forecasting performance of the proposed PVN-ANN techniques, the published data of copper spot prices from the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) are used. The empirical results show that the proposed hybrid PVN-ANN techniques can obtain a favorable prediction effect in both level and directional predictions compared to those of the traditional ANN techniques. This result clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid predictive techniques in revealing the underlying nonlinear patterns of international copper prices.

Keyword:

Complex network Copper price forecasting New York commodity exchange (COMEX) Artificial neural network Price volatility network

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Chao]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Xinyi]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Minggang]Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lim, Ming K.]Chongqing Univ, Coll Mech Engn, Chongqing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ghadimi, Pezhman]Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Mech & Mat Engn, Lab Adv Mfg Simulat & Robot, Dublin 4, Ireland
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, 590 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 9 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, 590 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Lim, Ming K.]Chongqing Univ, Coll Mech Engn, Chongqing, Peoples R China

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Source :

RESOURCES POLICY

ISSN: 0301-4207

Year: 2019

Volume: 63

ESI Discipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI HC Threshold:84

JCR Journal Grade:1

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 0

SCOPUS Cited Count: 54

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 0

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