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作者:

Wang, Chao (Wang, Chao.) | Zhang, Xinyi (Zhang, Xinyi.) | Wang, Minggang (Wang, Minggang.) | Lim, Ming K. (Lim, Ming K..) | Ghadimi, Pezhman (Ghadimi, Pezhman.)

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摘要:

The copper prices in international trade markets are volatile. An accurate copper price prediction may guide commodity trading and firm profits in the copper industry. In this paper, a hybrid predictive technique combining complex network and traditional artificial neural network (ANN) techniques is developed for copper price forecasting. This technique first transforms the original price time series to a price volatility network (PVN) and extracts the volatility characteristics from the topological structure of the PVN. After the original data are reconstructed, three widely used ANN techniques, the BPNN, RBFNN, and ELM, are applied to forecast the future copper price. To examine the forecasting performance of the proposed PVN-ANN techniques, the published data of copper spot prices from the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) are used. The empirical results show that the proposed hybrid PVN-ANN techniques can obtain a favorable prediction effect in both level and directional predictions compared to those of the traditional ANN techniques. This result clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid predictive techniques in revealing the underlying nonlinear patterns of international copper prices.

关键词:

Complex network Copper price forecasting New York commodity exchange (COMEX) Artificial neural network Price volatility network

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Chao]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Xinyi]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Minggang]Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lim, Ming K.]Chongqing Univ, Coll Mech Engn, Chongqing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Ghadimi, Pezhman]Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Mech & Mat Engn, Lab Adv Mfg Simulat & Robot, Dublin 4, Ireland
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Ctr Polymer Studies, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 8 ] [Wang, Chao]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, 590 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA
  • [ 9 ] [Wang, Minggang]Boston Univ, Dept Phys, 590 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA

通讯作者信息:

  • [Lim, Ming K.]Chongqing Univ, Coll Mech Engn, Chongqing, Peoples R China

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来源 :

RESOURCES POLICY

ISSN: 0301-4207

年份: 2019

卷: 63

ESI学科: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI高被引阀值:84

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 50

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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