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作者:

Li, Xin (Li, Xin.) | Xie, Qianqian (Xie, Qianqian.) | Daim, Tugrul (Daim, Tugrul.) | Huang, Lucheng (Huang, Lucheng.) (学者:黄鲁成)

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摘要:

How to detect and identify the future trends of emerging technologies as early as possible is crucial for government R&D strategic planning and enterprises' practices. To avoid the weakness of using only scientific papers or patents to study the development trends of emerging technologies, this paper proposes a framework that uses scientific papers and patents as data resources and integrates the text mining and expert judgment approaches to identify technology evolution paths and forecast technology development trends within the short term. The perovskite solar cell technology is selected as a case study. In this case, the text mining and expert judgment methods are applied to analyze the technology evolution path, and gaps analysis between science and technology is used to forecast the technology development trend. This paper will contribute to the technology forecasting and foresight methodology, and will be of interest to solar photovoltaic technology R&D experts.

关键词:

Perovskite solar cell technology Technology forecasting Technology trend Text mining

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Xin]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Qianqian]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Lucheng]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Technol Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Natl Res Univ Higher Sch Econ, Moscow, Russia
  • [ 6 ] [Daim, Tugrul]Chaoyang Univ Technol, Taichung, Taiwan

通讯作者信息:

  • [Daim, Tugrul]Portland State Univ, Dept Engn & Technol Management, Portland, OR 97207 USA

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来源 :

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

ISSN: 0040-1625

年份: 2019

卷: 146

页码: 432-449

ESI学科: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI高被引阀值:28

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 60

SCOPUS被引频次: 79

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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