Disruptive　technology　introduces　new　competitive　platforms,　possesses　the　ability　of　initiating　new　markets,　and　changes　firms＇　technological　competition　status.　Early　identification　of　candidate　application　areas　will　allow　for　timely　adjustment　of　technology　innovation　strategies　and　minimization　of　risks　at　firm　level.　This　paper　proposes　a　framework　of　application　areas　forecasting　process　for　disruptive　technology　based　on　patent　data.　SIRS　epidemic　model　is　analogically　introduced　by　measuring　transition　velocity　of　all　the　entities　in　the　technology　diffusion　system　respectively.　We　implement　the　model　deterministically　to　forecast　the　potential　of　industrial　and　technological　disruption　in　the　short　run,　and　stochastically　to　forecast　the　disruptive　technology＇s　major　outbreak　in　candidate　application　areas　in　the　long　run.　Radio-frequency　identification　technology　is　selected　as　case　study.　We　conclude　by　discussing　the　major　outbreak　probabilities　and　potential　disruptions　of　RFID　in　three　different　application　areas.　The　results　will　provide　practical　suggestion　to　firms　and　other　stakeholders　to　facilitate　their　strategy　making　when　faced　with　disruptive　technologies.　(C)　2016　Elsevier　Inc.　All　rights　reserved.