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作者:

Chen, Cong (Chen, Cong.) | Zhang, Guohui (Zhang, Guohui.) | Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy (Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy.) | Ci, Yusheng (Ci, Yusheng.) | Huang, Helai (Huang, Helai.) | Ma, Jianming (Ma, Jianming.) | Chen, Yanyan (Chen, Yanyan.) (学者:陈艳艳) | Guang, Hongzhi (Guang, Hongzhi.)

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SSCI Scopus PubMed

摘要:

There is a high potential of severe injury outcomes in traffic crashes on rural interstate highways due to the significant amount of high speed traffic on these corridors. Hierarchical Bayesian models are capable of incorporating between-crash variance and within-crash correlations into traffic crash data analysis and are increasingly utilized in traffic crash severity analysis. This paper applies a hierarchical Bayesian logistic model to examine the significant factors at crash and vehicle/driver levels and their heterogeneous impacts on driver injury severity in rural interstate highway crashes. Analysis results indicate that the majority of the total variance is induced by the between-crash variance, showing the appropriateness of the utilized hierarchical modeling approach. Three crash-level variables and six vehicle/driver-level variables are found significant in predicting driver injury severities: road curve, maximum vehicle damage in a crash, number of vehicles in a crash, wet road surface, vehicle type, driver age, driver gender, driver seatbelt use and driver alcohol or drug involvement. Among these variables, road curve, functional and disabled vehicle damage in crash, single-vehicle crashes, female drivers, senior drivers, motorcycles and driver alcohol or drug involvement tend to increase the odds of drivers being incapably injured or killed in rural interstate crashes, while wet road surface, male drivers and driver seatbelt use are more likely to decrease the probability of severe driver injuries. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insightful understanding of the internal mechanism of rural interstate crashes and beneficial references for developing effective countermeasures for rural interstate crash prevention. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词:

Bayesian inference Driver injury severity Hierarchical model Rural interstate highway Traffic crash

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Cong]Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 2540 Dole St, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Guohui]Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 2540 Dole St, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
  • [ 3 ] [Liu, Xiaoyue Cathy]Univ Utah, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 110 Cent Campus Dr,Suite 2000, Salt Lake City, UT 84112 USA
  • [ 4 ] [Ci, Yusheng]Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Transportat Sci & Engn, Harbin 150090, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Huang, Helai]Cent S Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat Engn, Urban Transport Res Ctr, Changsha 410075, Hunan, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Ma, Jianming]Texas Dept Transportat, Traff Operat Div, Austin, TX 78717 USA
  • [ 7 ] [Chen, Yanyan]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Transportat Engn Key Lab, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Guang, Hongzhi]Beijing Univ Technol, Transportat Res Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Zhang, Guohui]Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 2540 Dole St, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

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来源 :

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION

ISSN: 0001-4575

年份: 2016

卷: 97

页码: 69-78

ESI学科: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI高被引阀值:71

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 59

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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