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作者:

Chen, Cong (Chen, Cong.) | Zhang, Guohui (Zhang, Guohui.) | Tarefder, Rafiqul (Tarefder, Rafiqul.) | Ma, Jianming (Ma, Jianming.) | Wei, Heng (Wei, Heng.) | Guan, Hongzhi (Guan, Hongzhi.) (学者:关宏志)

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摘要:

Rear-end crash is one of the most common types of traffic crashes in the U.S. A good understanding of its characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. Previously, both multinomial Logit models and Bayesian network methods have been used in crash modeling and analysis, respectively, although each of them has its own application restrictions and limitations. In this study, a hybrid approach is developed to combine multinomial logit models and Bayesian network methods for comprehensively analyzing driver injury severities in rear-end crashes based on state-wide crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. A multinomial logit model is developed to investigate and identify significant contributing factors for rear-end crash driver injury severities classified into three categories: no injury, injury, and fatality. Then, the identified significant factors are utilized to establish a Bayesian network to explicitly formulate statistical associations between injury severity outcomes and explanatory attributes, including driver behavior, demographic features, vehicle factors, geometric and environmental characteristics, etc. The test results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid approach performs reasonably well. The Bayesian network reference analyses indicate that the factors including truck-involvement, inferior lighting conditions, windy weather conditions, the number of vehicles involved, etc. could significantly increase driver injury severities in rear-end crashes. The developed methodology and estimation results provide insights for developing effective countermeasures to reduce rear-end crash injury severities and improve traffic system safety performance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

关键词:

Bayesian network Traffic safety Multinomial logit model Rear-end crash

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Chen, Cong]Univ New Mexico, Dept Civil Engn, Albuquerque, NM 87133 USA
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Guohui]Univ New Mexico, Dept Civil Engn, Albuquerque, NM 87133 USA
  • [ 3 ] [Tarefder, Rafiqul]Univ New Mexico, Dept Civil Engn, Albuquerque, NM 87133 USA
  • [ 4 ] [Ma, Jianming]Texas Dept Transportat, Traff Operat Div, Austin, TX 78717 USA
  • [ 5 ] [Wei, Heng]Univ Cincinnati, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Cincinnati, OH 45221 USA
  • [ 6 ] [Guan, Hongzhi]Beijing Univ Technol, Transportat Res Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Zhang, Guohui]Univ New Mexico, Dept Civil Engn, Albuquerque, NM 87133 USA

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来源 :

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION

ISSN: 0001-4575

年份: 2015

卷: 80

页码: 76-88

ESI学科: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI高被引阀值:137

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次:

ESI高被引论文在榜: 12 展开所有

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