The　ongoing　research　is　hard　to　predict　the　machining　accuracy　of　machine　tools　in　the　preliminary　design　phase.　Hence,　a　rapid　and　quantitative　prediction　method　seems　very　necessary　and　imperative.　In　this　study,　a　new　machining　accuracy　prediction　strategy　for　a　five-axis　machine　tool　(FAMT)　based　on　tolerance　is　proposed.　Firstly,　a　characterization　model　of　surface　error　profiles　for　key　parts　of　the　FAMT　is　established,　and　GESP　prediction　models　based　on　tolerance　for　a　translational　axis　and　a　rotary　axis　are　established　by　utilizing　the　mapping　relationship　between　tolerance,　surface　error　profiles,　and　GESPs　of　key　parts　for　the　FAMT.　Then,　the　kinematic　equation　of　the　FAMT　is　established　based　on　GESPs　by　using　the　multi-body　system　(MBS)　theory.　As　a　basis,　the　actual　machining　position　for　the　cone　frustum　based　on　GESPs　by　considering　the　tool　setting　position　and　the　relative　NC　machining　instruction　are　solved.　And,　a　machining　accuracy　prediction　model　for　the　cone　frustum　based　on　tolerance　is　established.　To　enhance　the　prediction　efficiency　and　intuitively　evaluate　the　machining　performance　of　the　FAMT,　some　accuracy　indexes　of　the　cone　frustum,　such　as　roundness,　angularity,　and　concentricity,　are　described.　Thus,　the　machining　accuracy　prediction　model　based　on　key　parts＇　tolerance　parameters　of　the　FAMT　is　established　substantially.　Finally,　a　simulation　prediction　scheme　is　conducted.　Simulation　results　show　that　predicted　machining　accuracy　can　meet　the　requirements　of　accuracy.　To　further　demonstrate　the　practicability　of　the　method,　experimental　verification　is　implemented.　Experimental　results　show　measuring　values　are　very　close　to　predictive　ones.　Therefore,　a　reasonable　conclusion　can　be　drawn　that　the　proposed　method　can　quickly　and　effectively　predict　the　machining　accuracy　of　machine　tools　based　on　tolerance.