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In order to assess energy saving, CO2 and conventional pollutants abatement potential in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, the LEAP models were developed and applied to analyze the energy consumption, CO2 and conventional pollutants from 2011 to 2030. The BAU (Business As Usual) scenario and four policy scenarios were designed to describe the possible situations in the future. The policies include clean energy consumption (CEC), industry structure transformation(IST), energy efficiency program(EEP). The integrated scenario referred to the implementation of the above three control measures. The result show that under the BAU scenario the total energy demand in BTH is expected to reach 2118.25 Mtce by 2030, nearly 5 times of 2011. The total carbon emissions in 2030 will be 3637.96 million tons, which is about 4 times of 2011. And the emissions of SO2, NOX, PM10 and CO would be approximately 3 times of the value in 2011. In terms of different effects on energy-saving and pollutants emission reduction, EEP option can cause more impacts on energy-saving, reduction of CO2, NOX and CO, that is, it can reduce 17.48%, 16.48%, 15.90% and 15.56% in 2030. CEC solution showed the significant effects to reduce 19.16% and 18.19% of SO2 and PM10 in 2030, respectively. IST policy has no significant effect on the energy-saving and emissions reduction. The integrated scenario considered all the above three control measures, which can reduce more than 50% of energy consumption and pollutants emissions in year 2030.
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