A　probability　model　based　on　urban　land　types　and　probability　reliability　was　put　forward　to　predict　seismic　casualties.　The　casualty　probabilities　of　different　urban　land　types　were　got　by　classifying　the　urban　land　types,　combining　with　the　historical　earthquake　casualty　statistics　and　statistic　residence　status　in　the　architecture　of　different　urban　land　types,　and　then　the　upper　value　of　earthquake　casualties　in　certain　probability　might　be　estimated.　Meanwhile,　an　example　was　analyzed　with　the　proposed　method.　Results　show　the　feasibility　of　the　proposed　method.