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作者:

Lv Haichen (Lv Haichen.) | Yang Xiaolei (Yang Xiaolei.) | Wang Bingyi (Wang Bingyi.) | Wang Shaobo (Wang Shaobo.) | Du Xiaoyan (Du Xiaoyan.) | Tan Qian (Tan Qian.) | Hao Zhujing (Hao Zhujing.) | Liu Ying (Liu Ying.) | Yan Jun (Yan Jun.) | Xia Yunlong (Xia Yunlong.)

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摘要:

With the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases increasing worldwide, early prediction and accurate assessment of heart failure (HF) risk are crucial to meet the clinical demand.Our study objective was to develop machine learning (ML) models based on real-world electronic health records to predict 1-year in-hospital mortality, use of positive inotropic agents, and 1-year all-cause readmission rate.For this single-center study, we recruited patients with newly diagnosed HF hospitalized between December 2010 and August 2018 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University (Liaoning Province, China). The models were constructed for a population set (90:10 split of data set into training and test sets) using 79 variables during the first hospitalization. Logistic regression, support vector machine, artificial neural network, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting models were investigated for outcome predictions.Of the 13,602 patients with HF enrolled in the study, 537 (3.95%) died within 1 year and 2779 patients (20.43%) had a history of use of positive inotropic agents. ML algorithms improved the performance of predictive models for 1-year in-hospital mortality (areas under the curve [AUCs] 0.92-1.00), use of positive inotropic medication (AUCs 0.85-0.96), and 1-year readmission rates (AUCs 0.63-0.96). A decision tree of mortality risk was created and stratified by single variables at levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (<0.068 μg/L), followed by percentage of lymphocytes (<14.688%) and neutrophil count (4.870×109/L).ML techniques based on a large scale of clinical variables can improve outcome predictions for patients with HF. The mortality decision tree may contribute to guiding better clinical risk assessment and decision making.

关键词:

heart failure machine learning mortality positive inotropic agents predictive modeling readmission

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Lv Haichen]Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
  • [ 2 ] [Yang Xiaolei]Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang Bingyi]Medical Department, Yidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co Ltd, Beijing, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang Shaobo]College of Life Science and Bioengineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 5 ] [Du Xiaoyan]Medical Department, Yidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co Ltd, Beijing, China
  • [ 6 ] [Tan Qian]Medical Department, Happy Life Technology Co Ltd, Beijing, China
  • [ 7 ] [Hao Zhujing]Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
  • [ 8 ] [Liu Ying]Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China
  • [ 9 ] [Yan Jun]AI Lab, Yidu Cloud (Beijing) Technology Co Ltd, Beijing, China
  • [ 10 ] [Xia Yunlong]Department of Cardiology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University, Dalian, China

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来源 :

Journal of medical Internet research

ISSN: 1438-8871

年份: 2021

期: 4

卷: 23

页码: e24996

7 . 4 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: CLINICAL MEDICINE;

ESI高被引阀值:7

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WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 10

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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