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作者:

Li, Jihan (Li, Jihan.) | Li, Xiaoli (Li, Xiaoli.) (学者:李晓理) | Wang, Kang (Wang, Kang.) | Cui, Guimei (Cui, Guimei.)

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SCIE

摘要:

The PM2.5 concentration model is the key to predict PM2.5 concentration. During the prediction of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration based on prediction model, the prediction model of PM2.5 concentration cannot be usually accurately described. For the PM2.5 concentration model in the same period, the dynamic characteristics of the model will change under the influence of many factors. Similarly, for different time periods, the corresponding models of PM2.5 concentration may be different, and the single model cannot play the corresponding ability to predict PM2.5 concentration. The single model leads to the decline of prediction accuracy. To improve the accuracy of PM2.5 concentration prediction in this solution, a multiple model adaptive unscented Kalman filter (MMAUKF) method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the PM2.5 concentration data in three time periods of the day are taken as the research object, the nonlinear state space model frame of a support vector regression (SVR) method is established. Secondly, the frame of the SVR model in three time periods is combined with an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) to predict PM2.5 concentration in the next hour, respectively. Then, the predicted value of three time periods is fused into the final predicted PM2.5 concentration by Bayesian weighting method. Finally, the proposed method is compared with the single support vector regression-adaptive unscented Kalman filter (SVR-AUKF), autoregressive model-Kalman (AR-Kalman), autoregressive model (AR) and back propagation neural network (BP). The prediction results show that the accuracy of PM2.5 concentration prediction is improved in whole time period.

关键词:

adaptive unscented Kalman filter Bayesian multiple model support vector regression

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Jihan]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Li, Xiaoli]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Kang]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Xiaoli]Minist Educ, Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Engn Res Ctr Digital Community, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Cui, Guimei]Inner Mongolia Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Informat Engn, Baotou 014010, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 李晓理

    [Li, Xiaoli]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Li, Xiaoli]Minist Educ, Beijing Key Lab Computat Intelligence & Intellige, Engn Res Ctr Digital Community, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

ATMOSPHERE

年份: 2021

期: 5

卷: 12

2 . 9 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: GEOSCIENCES;

ESI高被引阀值:6

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 3

SCOPUS被引频次: 5

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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