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摘要:
Technology becomes more and more important during the process of economic and social development. Meanwhile, uncertainties grow accordingly because of its inner and outer environments. As a result, scientific technological foresight activities emerged and were paid much attention to. Cross-Impact Analysis (CIA) is a foresight method that considers cross impacts among future events thoroughly. As future event set, initial conditions and cross impacts are gained from experts, such forecasting activities as Monte Carlo simulation, trend forecasting and key events selecting can be performed by CIA. This paper reviews the history of CIA and its latest development. Then an easy and open technological foresight framework based on CIA is proposed. This model can be an effective tool for future forecasting.
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来源 :
SEVENTH WUHAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON E-BUSINESS, VOLS I-III: UNLOCKING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY
年份: 2008
页码: 2572-2577
语种: 英文
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