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作者:

Tang, Zhongjun (Tang, Zhongjun.) (学者:唐中君) | Wang, Tingting (Wang, Tingting.) | Cui, Junfu (Cui, Junfu.) | Han, Zhongya (Han, Zhongya.) | He, Bo (He, Bo.)

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SSCI Scopus

摘要:

Purpose Because of short life cycle and fluctuating greatly in total sales volumes (TSV), it is difficult to accumulate enough sales data and mine an attribute set reflecting the common needs of all consumers for a kind of experiential product with short life cycle (EPSLC). Methods for predicting TSV of long-life-cycle products may not be suitable for EPSLC. Furthermore, point prediction cannot obtain satisfactory prediction results because information available before production is inadequate. Thus, this paper aims at proposing and verifying a novel interval prediction method (IPM). Design/methodology/approach Because interval prediction may satisfy requirements of preproduction investment decision-making, interval prediction was adopted, and then the prediction difficult was converted into a classification problem. The classification was designed by comparing similarities in attribute relationship patterns between a new EPSLC and existing product groups. The product introduction may be written or obtained before production and thus was designed as primary source information. IPM was verified by using data of crime movies released in China from 2013 to 2017. Findings The IPM is valid, which uses product introduction as input, classifies existing products into three groups with different TSV intervals, mines attribute relationship patterns using content and association analyses and compares similarities in attribute relationship patterns - to predict TSV interval of a new EPSLC before production. Originality/value Different from other studies, the IPM uses product introduction to mine attribute relationship patterns and compares similarities in attribute relationship patterns to predict the interval values. It has a strong applicability in data content and structure and may realize rolling prediction.

关键词:

Sales prediction Interval prediction Code category system Experiential product with short life cycle Pattern network graph Attribute relationship pattern

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Tang, Zhongjun]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Adm, Res Base, Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Tingting]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Adm, Res Base, Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Han, Zhongya]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Adm, Res Base, Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [He, Bo]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Adm, Res Base, Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Cui, Junfu]Naval Aviat Univ, Qingdao Branch, Aviat Equipment Support Command Syst, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Wang, Tingting]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Adm, Res Base, Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China

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来源 :

MANAGEMENT DECISION

ISSN: 0025-1747

年份: 2021

期: 10

卷: 59

页码: 2528-2548

ESI学科: ECONOMICS & BUSINESS;

ESI高被引阀值:80

JCR分区:2

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 2

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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