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作者:

Xu, Shuo (Xu, Shuo.) (学者:徐硕) | Hao, Liyuan (Hao, Liyuan.) | Yang, Guancan (Yang, Guancan.) | Lu, Kun (Lu, Kun.) | An, Xin (An, Xin.)

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摘要:

The identification of emerging technologies can bring valuable intelligence to enterprises and countries determining research and development (R&D) priorities. Emerging technologies are closely related to emerging topics in terms of several well-documented attributes: relatively fast growth, radical novelty and prominent impact. Our previous work on detecting and forecasting emerging topics is adapted to measure technology emergence, but the dynamic influence model (DIM) is replaced by the topical n-grams (TNG) model in this framework to nominate several emerging technologies in technical terms and to exploit the potential of topic models. Hence, technologies are viewed as term-based themes in this study. Three indicators are designed to reflect the above attributes: the fast growth indicator, the radical novelty indicator and the prominent impact indicator. The relatively fast growth indicator is calculated from the results of the TNG model and the radical novelty indicator comes from the citation influence model (CIM). As for the prominent impact indicator, the involving authors are used after name disambiguation and credit allocation. The following fields are utilized to develop the models: title, abstract, keywords-author, publication year, byline information, and cited references. We participated in the 2018-2019 Measuring Tech Emergence Contest with the proposed method, and 8 out of 10 submitted ones met the contest organizer's criteria of technology emergence. Criteria included the percentage of high growth terms out of total terms provided, the degree of growth of the terms, and the frequency of those high growth terms across the dataset. Then, a qualitative assessment of overall methodology was conducted by three judges. In the end, we won Second Prize in the contest.

关键词:

Topical N-Grams Model Credit Allocation Emerging Technology Name Disambiguation Topic Model

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Xu, Shuo]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, 100 PingLeYuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Hao, Liyuan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, 100 PingLeYuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Yang, Guancan]Renmin Univ China, Sch Informat Resource Management, 59 Zhongguancun St, Beijing 100872, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Kun]Univ Oklahoma, Sch Lib & Informat Studies, 401 W Brooks St, Norman, OK 73072 USA
  • [ 5 ] [An, Xin]Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Econ & Management, 35 Qinghua East Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [An, Xin]Beijing Forestry Univ, Sch Econ & Management, 35 Qinghua East Rd, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China

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来源 :

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE

ISSN: 0040-1625

年份: 2021

卷: 162

ESI学科: SOCIAL SCIENCES, GENERAL;

ESI高被引阀值:53

JCR分区:1

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