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摘要:
Based on historical data of CSI 300 index and purchasing manager' data between April 2005 and June 2017, this paper uses detrend cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), multifractal asymmetric detrend cross-correlation analysis method (MF-ADCCA), detrend cross-correlation analysis on the time-delay to study the dependence, asymmetry and transmission direction of China's stock market and economy, then introduces the detrend cross-correlation coefficient (DCCA coefficient) to compare and analyze the condition of domestic and foreign countries. The results indicate that the cross-correlation between stock market and economy is persistent, which shows that there is mutual influence between stock market and economy. The cross-correlation is asymmetric, indicating that the cross-correlation is more durable when the stock market return rate or the rate of economic growth is on the rise. There is inconsistency between the trend of stock market and the trend of economy, which indicates that the stock market is not the barometer of the economy. The casual relationship between them is bidirectional. For the same length of time-delay, the stock market could have a greater impact on the economy. Compared with the condition of the United States, Britain, the cross correlation between Chinese stock market and economy is the weakest. The above results provide important reference for macroecononic forecasting and regulation. © 2020, Editorial Board of Journal of Systems Engineering Society of China. All right reserved.
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来源 :
System Engineering Theory and Practice
ISSN: 1000-6788
年份: 2020
期: 1
卷: 40
页码: 55-68