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作者:

Liu, Yu (Liu, Yu.) | Wang, Hao (Wang, Hao.) | Feng, Wenwen (Feng, Wenwen.) | Huang, Haocheng (Huang, Haocheng.)

收录:

SSCI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Water level management is an important part of urban water system management. In flood season, the river should be controlled to ensure the ecological and landscape water level. In non-flood season, the water level should be lowered to ensure smooth drainage. In urban areas, the response of the river water level to rainfall and artificial regulation is relatively rapid and strong. Therefore, building a mathematical model to forecast the short-term trend of urban river water levels can provide a scientific basis for decision makers and is of great significance for the management of urban water systems. With a focus on the high uncertainty of urban river water level prediction, a real-time rolling forecast method for the short-term water levels of urban internal rivers and external rivers was constructed, based on long short-term memory (LSTM). Fuzhou City, China was used as the research area, and the forecast performance of LSTM was analyzed. The results confirm the feasibility of LSTM in real-time rolling forecasting of water levels. The absolute errors at different times in each forecast were compared, and the various characteristics and causes of the errors in the forecast process were analyzed. The forecast performance of LSTM under different rolling intervals and different forecast periods was compared, and the recommended values are provided as a reference for the construction of local operational forecast systems.

关键词:

urban river management real-time rolling forecast water level forecasting LSTM

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Liu, Yu]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Hao]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Feng, Wenwen]Changan Univ, Sch Water & Environm, Xian 710054, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Huang, Haocheng]Cent South Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Wang, Hao]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Architecture Civil & Transportat Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH

年份: 2021

期: 17

卷: 18

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:94

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 21

SCOPUS被引频次: 26

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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