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作者:

Chu, Haibo (Chu, Haibo.) | Wei, Jiahua (Wei, Jiahua.) | Jiang, Yuan (Jiang, Yuan.)

收录:

SCIE

摘要:

Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting is of great significance for water resources planning and management, cascade reservoirs optimal operation, agriculture and hydro-power generation. In this work, a framework was proposed which integrates least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (lasso), DBN and bootstrap to improve the performance and the stability of streamflow forecasting with the lead-time of one month. Lasso helps to screen the appropriate predictors for the DBN model, and the DBN model simulates the complex relationship between the selection predictors and streamflow, and then bootstrap with the DBN model contributes to evaluate the uncertainty. The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) was taken as a case study. The results indicated that lasso-DBN-bootstrap model produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the other three models and provides reliable information on the forecasting uncertainty, which will be valuable for water resources management and planning.

关键词:

Bootstrap Deep belief networks (DBN) Lasso Middle-term and long-term streamflow forecasting Three-River headwaters region (TRHR)

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Chu, Haibo]Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wei, Jiahua]Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Chu, Haibo]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wei, Jiahua]Qinghai Univ, Sch Hydraul & Elect Engn, State Key Lab Plateau Ecol & Agr, Xining 810016, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Jiang, Yuan]Beijing Inst Geol, Beijing 100195, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Wei, Jiahua]Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China;;[Wei, Jiahua]Qinghai Univ, Sch Hydraul & Elect Engn, State Key Lab Plateau Ecol & Agr, Xining 810016, Peoples R China

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来源 :

WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

ISSN: 0920-4741

年份: 2021

期: 8

卷: 35

页码: 2617-2632

4 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:7

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 10

SCOPUS被引频次: 10

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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