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作者:

Chu, Haibo (Chu, Haibo.) | Wei, Jiahua (Wei, Jiahua.) | Wu, Wenyan (Wu, Wenyan.) | Jiang, Yuan (Jiang, Yuan.) | Chu, Qi (Chu, Qi.) | Meng, Xiujing (Meng, Xiujing.)

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摘要:

Data-driven models can achieve high accuracy and low computational cost without a priori knowledge of hydrological system, which have been successfully applied in streamflow forecasting for decades. However, it is still a challenging task to improve the performance of these models, especially for the rivers with dramatic flow changes. In this paper, a new integrated framework for daily streamflow forecasting based on different flow regimes is developed. The framework integrates a Fuzzy C-means (FCM) clustering for streamflow regime identification, a partial mutual information (PMI) for input selection, Deep Belief Networks (DBN) for mapping the nonlinear relationships between the selected inputs and streamflow during different streamflow dynamics processes, and a rigorous validation process considering structure validity to interpret the physical processes simulated using the DBN models. The framework was applied to three streamflow stations with different climate conditions in USA, and the results show that the framework has significantly improved modelling performance (approximately 12%) compared to single data-driven models. The integration of data-driven models and physical process classification also leads to improved integration of physical understanding of the complex characteristic of different flow regimes into the modelling process, leading to overall improved confidence in the developed daily streamflow forecasting models.

关键词:

Daily streamflow forecasting Deep belief network Rigorous model validation Streamflow process classification

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Chu, Haibo]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Chu, Qi]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wei, Jiahua]Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Wu, Wenyan]Univ Melbourne, Dept Infrastruct Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
  • [ 5 ] [Jiang, Yuan]Beijing Inst Geol, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Meng, Xiujing]China Ordnance Ind Survey & Geotech Inst CO LTD, Beijing, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Chu, Haibo]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China

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来源 :

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

ISSN: 0022-1694

年份: 2021

卷: 595

6 . 4 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:87

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 27

SCOPUS被引频次: 28

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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