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Author:

Li, Pei-Pei (Li, Pei-Pei.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.) | Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.)

Indexed by:

Scopus SCIE

Abstract:

Bayesian updating of the reliability of deteriorating engineering structures based on inspection data has been attracting a lot of attention recently because it can provide more accurate estimates of the structural reliability as the number of inspection data increases. However, in the process of updating the reliability of deteriorating structures, it is not a trivial work to obtain the posterior distribution of the random variable of interest due to its multidimensional parameter integral space and complex integral function. This paper presents a new effective method for obtaining the explicit posterior distribution for the random variable of interest and evaluating time-variant reliability combined with all updated random variables. In the proposed method, the Smolyak-type quadrature formula is first applied to obtain the first three posterior moments of the uncertain parameters, and the three-parameter lognormal distribution is used to approximate their posterior probability distributions. Then, the two-layer Smolyak-type sparse grid is adopted to estimate the first three posterior moments of the random variable of interest, and its explicit posterior distribution can also be approximated by the three-parameter lognormal distribution. Finally, the time-variant reliability analysis considering Bayesian updating is conducted using all updated random variables. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed method requires less computational cost, but the results provided are almost the same as those of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. (c) 2021 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Keyword:

Smolyak-type quadrature formula Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation Bayesian updating Three-parameter lognormal distribution Structural reliability

Author Community:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Pei-Pei]Kanagawa Univ, Dept Architecture, Kanagawa Ku, 3-27-1 Rokkakubashi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2218686, Japan
  • [ 2 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Kanagawa Univ, Dept Architecture, Kanagawa Ku, 3-27-1 Rokkakubashi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2218686, Japan
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Cent South Univ, Natl Engn Lab High Speed Railway Construct, 22 Shaoshannan Rd, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China

Reprint Author's Address:

  • [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, 100 Pingleyuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China;;[Lu, Zhao-Hui]Cent South Univ, Natl Engn Lab High Speed Railway Construct, 22 Shaoshannan Rd, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China

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Source :

ASCE-ASME JOURNAL OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN ENGINEERING SYSTEMS PART A-CIVIL ENGINEERING

ISSN: 2376-7642

Year: 2021

Issue: 4

Volume: 7

2 . 5 0 0

JCR@2022

JCR Journal Grade:2

Cited Count:

WoS CC Cited Count: 6

SCOPUS Cited Count: 11

ESI Highly Cited Papers on the List: 0 Unfold All

WanFang Cited Count:

Chinese Cited Count:

30 Days PV: 2

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