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作者:

Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.) | Qin, Miao-Jun (Qin, Miao-Jun.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.) | Zhang, Long-Wen (Zhang, Long-Wen.)

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SCIE

摘要:

This paper proposes a new method for seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants (NPPs) considering the uncertainty sources of both ground motions and structural parameters. Based on the conventional seismic fragility model that only contains the uncertainty of ground motions, seismic fragility analysis conditioned on a specific seismic intensity is probabilistically reformulated by further incorporating the uncertainty of structural parameters. To improve the efficiency of the analysis, a point estimation-assisted incremental dynamic analysis was developed for evaluating the seismic fragility model including the uncertainty of structural parameter. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method were demonstrated by a single-degree-of-freedom system, where Monte Carlo simulation method is used for comparison. The seismic fragility based on the finite element model of an AP1000 NPP was analyzed using the proposed method. The results reveal that the safety of NPP structure would be overestimated without considering the uncertainty of structural parameter and the influence of the uncertainty of structural parameters on the seismic fragility of NPP presents an upward trend as the damage level increases. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of different structural parameters reveals that elastic module may have a dominant influence.

关键词:

Incremental dynamic analysis NPPs Parameter uncertainty Point estimation Seismic fragility analysis

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Qin, Miao-Jun]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Kanagawa Univ, Dept Architecture, Kanagawa Ku, 3-27-1 Rokkakubashi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2218686, Japan
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Long-Wen]Hunan Agr Univ, Coll Water Resources & Civil Engn, Changsha, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Urban Secur & Disaster Engn, Minist Educ, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY

ISSN: 0951-8320

年份: 2021

卷: 216

8 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:9

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 10

SCOPUS被引频次: 7

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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