Carbon　emission　contributes　significantly　to　environmental　sustainability.　There　are　overwhelming　studies　of　how　urbanization　contributes　to　the　increase　of　carbon　emissions.　However,　it　has　been　unclear　how　emission　and　economic　change　within　urban　systems　evolve　with　social　development　in　a　long　period.　Therefore,　feasible　emission　reduction　policy　for　the　near　future　is　desired.　Taking　Guangdong　province　as　a　case　study,　Dynamic　simulation　model　of　carbon　emission　is　developed　to　assess　the　stability　of　a　metabolic　system　and　simultaneously,　explore　potential　changes　of　gross　domestic　products　(GDP)　and　carbon　emissions　over　a　long　period　from　2000　to　2035,　based　on　comprehensive　applications　of　three-perspective　stability　and　linkage　analyses.　Furthermore,　eight　simulated　scenarios　are　developed　to　assess　potential　emissions　and　GDP　changes　of　2035　under　the　condition　of　reducing　the　final　demand　of　key　carbon　emission　sectors　to　varying　degrees.　We　find　that　emission　flows　experience　a　remarkable　increase　during　investigated　years.　Under　the　premise　of　minimizing　economic　losses　and　reduce　emissions　per　unit　GDP,　emission　reduction　policies　for　final　demand　should　be　implemented　on　domestic　products-reliant　sectors　rather　than　imported　products-reliant　sectors.