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作者:

Lei, Hao (Lei, Hao.) | Jiang, Hangjin (Jiang, Hangjin.) | Zhang, Nan (Zhang, Nan.) (学者:张楠) | Duan, Xiaoli (Duan, Xiaoli.) | Chen, Tao (Chen, Tao.) | Yang, Lei (Yang, Lei.) | Wang, Dayan (Wang, Dayan.) | Shu, Yuelong (Shu, Yuelong.)

收录:

Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Background: School closure is a common mitigation strategy during severe influenza epidemics and pandemics. However, the effectiveness of this strategy remains controversial. In this study, we aimed to explore the effectiveness of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics in provincial-level administrative divisions (PLADs) with varying urbanization rates in China. Methods: This study analyzed influenza surveillance data between 2010 and 2019 provided by the Chinese National Influenza Center. Taking into consideration the climate, this study included a region with 3 adjacent PLADs in Northern China and another region with 4 adjacent PLADs in Southern China. The effect of school closure on influenza transmission was evaluated by the reduction of the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza during school winter breaks compared with that before school winter breaks. An age-structured Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model was built to model influenza transmission in different levels of urbanization. Parameters were determined using the surveillance data via robust Bayesian method. Results: Between 2010 and 2019, in the less urbanized provinces: Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui, during school winter breaks, the effective reproductive number of seasonal influenza epidemics reduced 14.6% [95% confidential interval (CI): 6.2-22.9%], 9.6% (95% CI: 2.5-16.6%), 7.3% (95% CI: 0.1-14.4%) and 8.2% (95% CI: 1.1-15.3%) respectively. However, in the highly urbanized cities: Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, it reduced only 5.2% (95% CI: -0.7-11.2%), 4.1% (95% CI: -0.9-9.1%) and 3.9% (95% CI: -1.6-9.4%) respectively. In China, urbanization is associated with decreased proportion of children and increased social contact. According to the SIRS model, both factors could reduce the impact of school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics, and the proportion of children in the population is thought to be the dominant influencing factor. Conclusions: Effectiveness of school closure on the epidemics varies with the age structure in the population and social contact patterns. School closure should be recommended in the low urbanized regions in China in the influenza seasons.

关键词:

Influenza epidemics Contact China Urbanization School closure

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Lei, Hao]Zhejiang Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Jiang, Hangjin]Zhejiang Univ, Ctr Data Sci, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhang, Nan]Beijing Univ Technol, Key Lab Green Built Environm & Energy Efficient T, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Duan, Xiaoli]Univ Sci & Technol Beijing, Sch Energy & Environm Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Chen, Tao]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Viral Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Yang, Lei]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Viral Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Dayan]Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Inst Viral Dis Control & Prevent, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Diag & Treatment Infect Di, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Chen, Tao]Natl Hlth Commiss, Key Lab Med Virol, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Yang, Lei]Natl Hlth Commiss, Key Lab Med Virol, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Wang, Dayan]Natl Hlth Commiss, Key Lab Med Virol, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Shu, Yuelong]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth Shenzhen, Shenzhen Campus,66 Gongchang Rd, Shenzhen 518107, Guangdong, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Shu, Yuelong]Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Publ Hlth Shenzhen, Shenzhen Campus,66 Gongchang Rd, Shenzhen 518107, Guangdong, Peoples R China

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来源 :

INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY

ISSN: 2095-5162

年份: 2021

期: 1

卷: 10

8 . 1 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: IMMUNOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:120

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 10

SCOPUS被引频次: 10

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

万方被引频次:

中文被引频次:

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