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作者:

Xia, Yufei (Xia, Yufei.) | Ren, Hanfei (Ren, Hanfei.) | Li, Yinguo (Li, Yinguo.) | Xia, Jiahui (Xia, Jiahui.) | He, Lingyun (He, Lingyun.) | Liu, Nana (Liu, Nana.)

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EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Green bonds are powerful tools for fighting against climate change and typically exhibit more volatility than conventional bonds do. However, the volatility forecasting of green bond has received little attention in previous literature. This study proposes two novel heterogeneous ensemble models, which differ from common volatility forecasting in that they are combine advanced tree-based ensemble models and exogenous predictors from other financial and commodity markets to forecast the volatility of green bonds. Validated on multiple green bonds indexes, loss functions, and time horizons, the comparative results show that the incorporation of exogenous predictors can enhance the predictive accuracy of volatility forecasting models, which is also confirmed by the marginal effects illustrated by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. The proposed EX-SEL model significantly outperforms the benchmark models in most cases. The results of the robustness check further indicate that the empirical results are robust to alternative volatility estimators, extreme events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, and alternative selection strategies.

关键词:

Random forests Heterogeneous ensemble Green bonds Volatility forecasting Gradient boosting decision tree

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Xia, Yufei]Jiangsu Normal Univ, Business Sch, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Ren, Hanfei]Jiangsu Normal Univ, Business Sch, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Li, Yinguo]Jiangsu Normal Univ, Business Sch, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Xia, Jiahui]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Dublin Int Coll, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [He, Lingyun]China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Liu, Nana]China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

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来源 :

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS

ISSN: 0957-4174

年份: 2022

卷: 204

8 . 5

JCR@2022

8 . 5 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENGINEERING;

ESI高被引阀值:49

JCR分区:1

中科院分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 9

SCOPUS被引频次: 9

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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