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作者:

Zhao, Lin Lin (Zhao, Lin Lin.) | Wang, Bill (Wang, Bill.) | Mbachu, Jasper (Mbachu, Jasper.) | Egbelakin, Temitope (Egbelakin, Temitope.)

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摘要:

Trend in the producer price is of much value to the central bank authorities in identifying the cost-push inflation that can improve their understanding of future directions of inflation in the aggregate economy and informulating sound policies and macroeconomic plans. Forecasting of the producer price movement is complex; the popular use of conventional methods is fraught with inaccuracies which often produces misleading results. This study explored the reliability and accuracy of the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for modelling and predicting producer price index (PPI) trend in New Zealand. The study also compared ANNs results with those produced by the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) as an alternative. Results showed that the ANNs model outperformed the ARIMA model as a more reliable and accurate tool for time series data prediction. The method developed could guide economists and macroeconomic policymakers in making more accurate forecasts. Copyright © 2020 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

关键词:

Autoregressive moving average model Commerce Forecasting Neural networks

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhao, Lin Lin]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Bill]College of Science and Advanced Technology, Auckland Campus, Oteha Rohe, Albany Highway, Albany, Auckland; 0632, New Zealand
  • [ 3 ] [Mbachu, Jasper]Faculty of Society and Design, 14 University Drive, Robina; QLD; 4226, Australia
  • [ 4 ] [Egbelakin, Temitope]College of Science and Advanced Technology, Auckland Campus, Oteha Rohe, Albany Highway, Albany, Auckland; 0632, New Zealand

通讯作者信息:

  • [zhao, lin lin]college of architecture and civil engineering, beijing university of technology, beijing, china

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来源 :

International Journal of Internet Manufacturing and Services

ISSN: 1751-6048

年份: 2020

期: 3

卷: 7

页码: 237-251

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 4

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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