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作者:

Ji, Ling (Ji, Ling.) (学者:嵇灵) | Zhang, Beibei (Zhang, Beibei.) | Huang, Guohe (Huang, Guohe.) | Lu, Yan (Lu, Yan.)

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摘要:

A hybrid inexact optimization model is developed for food-water-energy nexus system management with the consideration of complex uncertainties and decision makers' risk tolerance. A multi-stage stochastic fuzzy random programming (MSFRP) model is tailored to tackle variables with deeper uncertainties, a mixture of fuzzy and random fuzzy characteristics. Allowing to reflect decision makers' subjective opinion and risk preference, it can provide decision makers the tradeoff information between system benefit and risk attitude. The proposed model was applied to an agricultural area Shandong Province, China with the aim of maximum total system benefits. The valuable managerial insights on optimal cultivated land distribution, water resource allocation, and energy supply strategies are provided for decision makers under uncertainties. Meanwhile, the pesticide and fertilizer consumption for crop planting, and the carbon emission embodied in per unit crop supply are also quantitatively estimated. Moreover, by setting different water resource availability scenarios, the impacts of future water resource conditions on optimal management strategies under climate change are evaluated and discussed. The results suggested that rice would be the critical crop with the largest planting area for food security during the planning horizon. Under scarcer water resource conditions, the system benefits would reduce due to more desalination water consumption and planting strategy adjustment. However, it would lead to less carbon emission embodied in per unit crop supply and relieve local carbon emission control pressure. Compared to the conventional multi-stage stochastic programming, the developed MSFRP can be more effective to reflect the optimistic and pessimistic attitude of decision makers and deal with future scenario information with deeper uncertainties.

关键词:

Uncertainty Multi-stage programming Food-energy-water nexus Random fuzzy

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Zhang, Beibei]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Res Base Beijing Modern Mfg Dev, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Huang, Guohe]Univ Regina, Fac Engn, Environm Syst Engn Program, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada
  • [ 4 ] [Lu, Yan]State Grid Jibei Elect Econ Res Inst, Beijing 100045, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 嵇灵

    [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 100 Ping Le Yuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING

ISSN: 0921-3449

年份: 2020

卷: 155

1 3 . 2 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:138

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 39

SCOPUS被引频次: 43

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

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