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作者:

Zhang, Wen (Zhang, Wen.) (学者:张文) | Xie, Rui (Xie, Rui.) | Dong, Xuefan (Dong, Xuefan.) | Li, Jian (Li, Jian.) | Peng, Peng (Peng, Peng.) | Gonzalez, Ernesto D. R. Santibanez (Gonzalez, Ernesto D. R. Santibanez.)

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EI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

In this paper, we propose a coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemiological model called SEIR-FMi (Susceptible -Exposed-Infectious-Recovery with Flow and Medical investments) to study the effects of intra-city population movement, inter-city population movement, and medical resource investment on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. We theoretically derived the reproduction number of the SEIR-FMi model by using the next -generation matrix method and empirically simulate the individual impacts of population movement and medi-cal resource investment on epidemic control. We found that intra-and inter-city population movements will increase the risk of epidemic spread, and the effect of inter-city population movement on low-risk areas is higher than that on high-risk areas. Increasing medical resource investment can not only speed up the recover rate of patients but also reduce the growth rate of infected cases and shorten the spread duration of the epidemic. We collected data on intra-city population movement, inter-city population movement, medical resource investment, and confirmed cases in the cities of Wuhan, Jingzhou, and Xiangyang, Hubei Province, China, from January 15 to March 15, 2020. Using the collected data, we validated that the proposed SEIR-FMi model performs well in simulating the spread of COVID-19 in the three cities. Meanwhile, this study confirms that three non -pharmaceutical interventions, namely community isolation, population mobility control, and medical resource aid, applied during the epidemic period are indispensable in controlling the spread of COVID-19 in the three cities.

关键词:

Effective reproduction number Population movement Basic reproduction number Medical resources COVID-19 SEIR-FMi model

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Xie, Rui]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Dong, Xuefan]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Jian]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Wen]Beijing Univ Technol, Blockchain Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Xie, Rui]Beijing Univ Technol, Blockchain Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Dong, Xuefan]Beijing Univ Technol, Blockchain Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Li, Jian]Beijing Univ Technol, Blockchain Ctr, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Peng, Peng]Beijing Chaoyang Hosp, Beijing 100150, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Gonzalez, Ernesto D. R. Santibanez]Univ Talca, Fac Engn, Dept Ind Engn, Talca, Chile

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来源 :

COMPUTERS IN BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE

ISSN: 0010-4825

年份: 2022

卷: 149

7 . 7

JCR@2022

7 . 7 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: COMPUTER SCIENCE;

ESI高被引阀值:46

JCR分区:1

中科院分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次:

SCOPUS被引频次: 11

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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