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作者:

Yu, Quan (Yu, Quan.) | Yao, Zong-Han (Yao, Zong-Han.)

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摘要:

In intelligent traffic system, short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the key technologies of traffic control and traffic guidance. Due to the inaccuracy of Markov traffic flow prediction model, according to the characteristics of traffic flow, a Markov particle filter traffic flow prediction model is proposed. On the one hand, after pretreatment of traffic flow, it can be used as sample data to predict future traffic flow in Markov model, which can better describe the trend of traffic flow. On the other hand, in view of the inaccuracy of the prediction results and the disadvantages of non-linear prediction instability, particle filter algorithm is used to update the prediction results and weights, and the sample re-selection process. After several iterations, the sample particles are closer to the actual prediction result, thus improving the prediction accuracy. Finally, the traffic flow detected by a detector in Changping District of Beijing is simulated, and the prediction results are compared with the traditional Markov chain. The results show that the 5-minute interval error and 1-hour interval error of the proposed Markov particle filter traffic flow prediction model are 6.14% and 6.04% respectively. It shows that the model has better applicability and stability, and the prediction accuracy is high. Copyright © 2019 by Science Press.

关键词:

Data processing Forecasting Genetic algorithms Markov chains Monte Carlo methods Predictive analytics Street traffic control Systems engineering

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Yu, Quan]Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing; 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Yao, Zong-Han]Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing; 100124, China

通讯作者信息:

  • [yu, quan]beijing key laboratory of traffic engineering, beijing university of technology, beijing; 100124, china

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来源 :

Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

ISSN: 1009-6744

年份: 2019

期: 2

卷: 19

页码: 209-215

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 4

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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