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作者:

Lu, Quanying (Lu, Quanying.) | Sun, Yuying (Sun, Yuying.) | Hong, Yongmiao (Hong, Yongmiao.) | Wang, Shouyang (Wang, Shouyang.)

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SSCI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Practitioners and policy makers rely on accurate crude oil forecasting to avoid price risks and grasp investment opportunities, but the core of existing predictive models for such prices is based on point-valued inputs and outputs, which may suffer from informational loss of volatility. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a modified threshold autoregressive interval-valued models with interval-valued factors (MTARIX), as extended by Sun et al. [Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series. J. Econom., 2018, 206, 414-446], to analyze and forecast interval-valued crude oil prices. In contrast to point-valued data methods, MTARIX models simultaneously capture nonlinear features in price trend and volatility, and this informational gain can produce more accurate forecasts. Several interval-valued factors and point-valued threshold variables are analyzed, including supply and demand, speculation, stock market, monetary market, technical factor, and search query data. Empirical results suggest that MTARIX models with appropriate threshold variables outperform other competing forecast models (ACIX, CR-SETARX, ARX, and VARX). The findings indicate that oil price range information is more valuable than oil price level information in forecasting crude oil prices.

关键词:

Nonlinearity Crude oil price Threshold autoregressive interval model Interval time series

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Lu, Quanying]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Sun, Yuying]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Sun, Yuying]Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Hong, Yongmiao]Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Wang, Shouyang]Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Lu, Quanying]Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Sun, Yuying]Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Hong, Yongmiao]Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 9 ] [Wang, Shouyang]Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 10 ] [Sun, Yuying]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 11 ] [Hong, Yongmiao]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China
  • [ 12 ] [Wang, Shouyang]Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 110190, Peoples R China

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来源 :

QUANTITATIVE FINANCE

ISSN: 1469-7688

年份: 2021

期: 11

卷: 22

页码: 2047-2061

1 . 3 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ECONOMICS & BUSINESS;

ESI高被引阀值:80

JCR分区:2

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 9

SCOPUS被引频次: 9

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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中文被引频次:

近30日浏览量: 9

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