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作者:

Li, Xiangyu (Li, Xiangyu.) | Lei, Tianjie (Lei, Tianjie.) | Qin, Jing (Qin, Jing.) | Wang, Jiabao (Wang, Jiabao.) | Wang, Weiwei (Wang, Weiwei.) | Chen, Dongpan (Chen, Dongpan.) | Qian, Guansheng (Qian, Guansheng.) | Lu, Jingxuan (Lu, Jingxuan.)

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摘要:

Slope collapse is one of the most severe natural disaster threats, and accurately predicting slope deformation is important to avoid the occurrence of disaster. However, the single prediction model has some problems, such as poor stability, lower accuracy and data fluctuation. Obviously, it is necessary to establish a combination model to accurately predict slope deformation. Here, we used the GFW-Fisher optimal segmentation method to establish a multi-scale prediction combination model. Our results indicated that the determination coefficient of linear combination model, weighted geometric average model, and weighted harmonic average model was the highest at the surface spatial scale with a large scale, and their determination coefficients were 0.95, 0.95, and 0.96, respectively. Meanwhile, RMSE, MAE and Relative error were used as indicators to evaluate accuracy and the evaluation accuracy of the weighted harmonic average model was the most obvious, with an accuracy of 5.57%, 3.11% and 3.98%, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary to choose the weighted harmonic average model at the surface scale with a large scale as the slope deformation prediction combination model. Meanwhile, our results effectively solve the problems of the prediction results caused by the single model and data fluctuation and provide a reference for the prediction of slope deformation.

关键词:

fisher optimal segmentation combination model multi-scale high slope prediction goodness-of-fit weight

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Li, Xiangyu]China Inst Water Resource & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Qin, Jing]China Inst Water Resource & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Lu, Jingxuan]China Inst Water Resource & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Lei, Tianjie]Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
  • [ 5 ] [Qian, Guansheng]Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
  • [ 6 ] [Wang, Jiabao]China Univ Min & Technol CUMTB, Coll Geosci & Surveying Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 7 ] [Wang, Weiwei]China Elect Greatwall ShengFeiFan Informat Syst C, Beijing 102200, Peoples R China
  • [ 8 ] [Chen, Dongpan]Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

WATER

年份: 2022

期: 22

卷: 14

3 . 4

JCR@2022

3 . 4 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:47

JCR分区:2

中科院分区:3

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 1

SCOPUS被引频次: 1

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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