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作者:

Wang, Ning (Wang, Ning.) | Xu, Cheng-shun (Xu, Cheng-shun.) (学者:许成顺) | Du, Xiu-li (Du, Xiu-li.) (学者:杜修力) | Zhang, Ming-ju (Zhang, Ming-ju.) (学者:张明聚)

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EI Scopus

摘要:

In project management, it is an important approach that the deep excavation safety risk (DESR) is synthetically assessed based on experiential information provided by experts. This information is usually obtained from multiple sources and is incomplete. Therefore, the problem of synthesizing multiple sources and uncertainty information is of great significance for the assessment and control of DESR. This paper presents a risk assessment and decision approach for deep excavation construction based on Bayesian analysis. First, the expressions of a likelihood function used to describe and synthesize uncertain information obtained from expert panel is constructed, and a discretization interval division method of occurrence probability and consequences of an unwanted event is proposed based on the current risk code in China. Then, the discrete model of synthesizing information of expert estimates is constructed, and a comparative analysis of expert-elicited results and formula deduction are utilized to evaluate the advantages of this model under some hypothetical scenarios. On that basis, the index system of DESR is established and the weight of each index is calculated by the method of analytic hierarchy process. The risk matrix, deviation degree and risk acceptance criteria are developed to determine the whole risk level. Finally, the proposed method is verified by analyzing a typical deep excavation of Beijing Metro. The results demonstrate the feasibility of this method and its application potential. © 2017, The Society for Reliability Engineering, Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM), India and The Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden.

关键词:

Uncertainty analysis Risk assessment Safety engineering Project management Excavation

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Ning]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Room C545, Like Building, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Ning]Key Laboratory of Roads and Railway Engineering Safety Control of Ministry of Education, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, China
  • [ 3 ] [Xu, Cheng-shun]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Room 412, Jiangong East Building, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
  • [ 4 ] [Du, Xiu-li]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Room 415, Jiangong East Building, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
  • [ 5 ] [Zhang, Ming-ju]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Room 420, Jiangong East Building, No. 100, Pingleyuan, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China

通讯作者信息:

  • [wang, ning]key laboratory of roads and railway engineering safety control of ministry of education, shijiazhuang tiedao university, shijiazhuang, china;;[wang, ning]college of architecture and civil engineering, beijing university of technology, room c545, like building, no. 100, pingleyuan, chaoyang district, beijing, china

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来源 :

International Journal of Systems Assurance Engineering and Management

ISSN: 0975-6809

年份: 2018

期: 2

卷: 9

页码: 452-466

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 16

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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