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作者:

Zahid, Muhammad (Zahid, Muhammad.) | Chen, Yangzhou (Chen, Yangzhou.) (学者:陈阳舟) | Jamal, Arshad (Jamal, Arshad.) | Memon, Muhammad Qasim (Memon, Muhammad Qasim.)

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摘要:

Short-term traffic state prediction has become an integral component of an advanced traveler information system (ATIS) in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Accurate modeling and short-term traffic prediction are quite challenging due to its intricate characteristics, stochastic, and dynamic traffic processes. Existing works in this area follow different modeling approaches that are focused to fit speed, density, or the volume data. However, the accuracy of such modeling approaches has been frequently questioned, thereby traffic state prediction over the short-term from such methods inflicts an overfitting issue. We address this issue to accurately model short-term future traffic state prediction using state-of-the-art models via hyperparameter optimization. To do so, we focused on different machine learning classifiers such as local deep support vector machine (LD-SVM), decision jungles, multi-layers perceptron (MLP), and CN2 rule induction. Moreover, traffic states are evaluated using traffic attributes such as level of service (LOS) horizons and simple if-then rules at different time intervals. Our findings show that hyperparameter optimization via random sweep yielded superior results. The overall prediction performances obtained an average improvement by over 95%, such that the decision jungle and LD-SVM achieved an accuracy of 0.982 and 0.975, respectively. The experimental results show the robustness and superior performances of decision jungles (DJ) over other methods.

关键词:

hyper parameter optimization ITS machine learning simulation spatio-temporal traffic modeling traffic state prediction

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zahid, Muhammad]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Metropolitan Transportat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jamal, Arshad]King Fahd Univ Petr & Minerals, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, KFUPM Box 5055, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 4 ] [Memon, Muhammad Qasim]BNU, Fac Educ, Adv Innovat Ctr Future Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 陈阳舟

    [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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年份: 2020

期: 3

卷: 20

3 . 9 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: CHEMISTRY;

ESI高被引阀值:33

JCR分区:1

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 27

SCOPUS被引频次: 36

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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