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To assess the post-earthquake support capacity of highway networks, the post-earthquake connectivity reliability and traffic travel time analysis model of highway networks were established based on Monte Carlo simulation. The seismic damage states and corresponding probabilities of roads and bridges were evaluated by seismic fragility curves. The descending traffic capacity of road sections, caused by the seismic damages of roads and bridges, was calculated by the reduction factors of the connectivity, travel speed, and traffic capacity of roads and bridges. The Monte Carlo method, in consideration of the uncertainty on seismic damages of roads and bridges, was adopted to simulate the post-earthquake performance of highway networks with the descending traffic capacity. In each Monte Carlo sampling calculation, the highway network connectivity was verified by the breadth first search algorithm. The incremental assignment algorithm was adopted to evaluate the total travel time on basis of the statistic traffic assignment of the highway network. The mean values of connectivity reliabilities and travel time of highway networks were repeatedly calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation, with the result of denoting the post-earthquake state of the highway network. Characteristics and applicability of the highway network connectivity and travel time analysis model were analyzed by the numerical example. The results show that the descending post-earthquake traffic capacity is one of main factors of the increase of total travel time. The reliability node with the low connectivity corresponds to high post-earthquake travel time. And the enhancement of post-earthquake support capability of highway network can be achieved by the increase of origin nodes of network traffic flow. The connectivity reliability model, with a few input parameters, is appropriate for an initial analysis. Meanwhile, considering traffic capacity properties of road sections as well as traffic parameters of origin-destination (OD) networks, the analysis model of traffic travel time provides more precise results. © 2017, Editorial Department of China Journal of Highway and Transport. All right reserved.
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