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作者:

Zahid, Muhammad (Zahid, Muhammad.) | Chen, Yangzhou (Chen, Yangzhou.) (学者:陈阳舟) | Jamal, Arshad (Jamal, Arshad.) | Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie (Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie.)

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SSCI Scopus SCIE

摘要:

Short-term traffic speed prediction is vital for proactive traffic control, and is one of the integral components of an intelligent transportation system (ITS). Accurate prediction of short-term travel speed has numerous applications for traffic monitoring, route planning, as well as helping to relieve traffic congestion. Previous studies have attempted to approach this problem using statistical and conventional artificial intelligence (AI) methods without accounting for influence of data collection time-horizons. However, statistical methods have received widespread criticism concerning prediction accuracy performance, while traditional AI approaches have too shallow architecture to capture non-linear stochastics variations in traffic flow. Hence, this study aims to explore prediction of short-term traffic speed at multiple time-ahead intervals using data collected from loop detectors. A fast forest quantile regression (FFQR) via hyperparameters optimization was introduced for predicting short-term traffic speed prediction. FFQR is an ensemble machine learning model that combines several regression trees to improve speed prediction accuracy. The accuracy of short-term traffic speed prediction was compared using the FFQR model at different data collection time-horizons. Prediction results demonstrated the adequacy and robustness of the proposed approach under different scenarios. It was concluded that prediction performance of FFQR was significantly enhanced and robust, particularly at time intervals larger than 5 min. The findings also revealed that speed prediction error (in terms of quantiles loss) ranged between 0.58 and 1.18.

关键词:

ITS travel speed prediction traffic simulation and modeling Beijing fast forest quantile regression

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zahid, Muhammad]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Metropolitan Transportat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Jamal, Arshad]KFUPM, Dept Civil Engn, Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia
  • [ 4 ] [Mamadou, Coulibaly Zie]IA Sch, Esi Business Sch, Grp Gema, Dept Artificial Intelligence & Management, 61 Bis Rue Peupliers, F-92100 Paris, France

通讯作者信息:

  • 陈阳舟

    [Chen, Yangzhou]Beijing Univ Technol, Coll Artificial Intelligence & Automat, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

SUSTAINABILITY

年份: 2020

期: 2

卷: 12

3 . 9 0 0

JCR@2022

ESI学科: ENVIRONMENT/ECOLOGY;

ESI高被引阀值:138

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次: 21

SCOPUS被引频次: 31

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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