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作者:

Wang, Mengmeng (Wang, Mengmeng.) | Ji, Ling (Ji, Ling.) (学者:嵇灵) | Xie, Yulei (Xie, Yulei.)

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摘要:

Although bioethanol is viewed as a promising alternative to traditional fossil fuels, its commercialization is hindered by high production costs and uncertain policies. This study proposes a novel integrated framework to support decision making in the bioethanol supply-chain system under complex uncertainties. By considering various geographical, economic, and environmental factors, potentially suitable sites are identified using a geographic information systems-based (GIS-based) multi-criteria decision-making approach. Then, a two-stage stochastic, fuzzy, chance-constrained programming model is developed to determine investment decisions (i.e. site and size of biorefineries) and operational strategies (i.e. production schedule, biomass supply network, etc.) in the face of uncertainties. The proposed research framework is tailored for a case study in Henan Province, China, which suggests the installation of six biorefineries with a total capacity of 679.11 million liters to reduce local carbon emissions by 1.54 million tons. Decision makers with different risk preferences can use this method to find optimal tradeoff strategies between system cost and risk under uncertainties. Sensitivity analysis also reveals that increasing the proportion of bioethanol blending targets is the key exogenous variable to promote the use of local biomass resources.

关键词:

GIS bioethanol supply chain two-stage stochastic programming uncertainty multi-criteria decision making

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Mengmeng]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Xie, Yulei]Guangdong Univ Technol, Inst Environm & Ecol Engn, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 100 Ping Le Yuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • 嵇灵

    [Ji, Ling]Beijing Univ Technol, Sch Econ & Management, 100 Ping Le Yuan, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

BIOFUELS BIOPRODUCTS & BIOREFINING-BIOFPR

ISSN: 1932-104X

年份: 2024

期: 2

卷: 18

页码: 464-481

被引次数:

WoS核心集被引频次:

SCOPUS被引频次: 5

ESI高被引论文在榜: 0 展开所有

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