Reserve　regulation　in　non-ferrous　metal　markets　is　crucial　for　stabilizing　the　market　supply　and　demand　relationship　and　ensuring　a　stable　supply　and　demand　relationship.　This　study　proposes　a　＇Background-Action-Response＇　(BAR)　framework　for　structured　risk　scenario　analysis　in　metal　markets.　The　copper　release　event　by　China＇s　National　Food　and　Strategic　Reserves　Administration　in　2021　is　used　as　a　case　study　to　analyze　the　effectiveness　of　the　release　behavior　on　market　stability.　The　framework　and　methodology　provided　in　this　study　offer　decision-makers　a　systematic　approach　to　identify　and　respond　to　risk　scenarios　in　stockpiling　and　release　decision　analysis.　©　2024　The　Authors.