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Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful tool for predicting the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of components and systems. However, there are two challenges. First, DL-based methods require a sufficient number of labelled samples, while the number of run-to-failure units in practical is often small due to the high cost and time-consuming life test. Second, it is desirable to provide the prediction uncertainty of RUL for maintenance decision-making. To tackle above issues, we propose a novel few-shot RUL prediction model with a hypernetwork structure incorporating uncertainty quantification and calibration (Hyper-UC). The proposed Hyper-UC uses a shared feature embedding network and a unit-specific weight to model the mapping from sensor signals to RUL, and a generative network is designed to learn the meta-knowledge of generating distributions over the unit-specific weights. To accurately provide the predictive uncertainty, the Hyper-UC systematically models two types of uncertainty: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. In the online phase, the unit-specific weights of in-service units are obtained through calibration, and subsequently the predictive distribution of the RUL can be obtained. The proposed method is evaluated to have superior model performance than the benchmark methods in a case study using the C-MAPSS dataset. © 2024 IEEE.
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ISSN: 2161-8070
年份: 2024
页码: 994-999
语种: 英文
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