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作者:

Zhang, Wei (Zhang, Wei.) | Wu, Jiayi (Wu, Jiayi.) | Wang, Shun (Wang, Shun.) | Zhang, Yong (Zhang, Yong.)

收录:

SSCI Scopus

摘要:

This research aims to explore the complex dynamics governing the correlation between oil futures prices and Chinese agricultural futures prices, with a specific emphasis on unveiling the crucial role played by oil futures prices in predicting the trajectory of agricultural futures prices. The study utilizes the Vector Error Correction-Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (VEC-DCC-MGARCH) model to dissect the interplay among oil, soybean, and corn price series. Additionally, this study integrates the innovative Spatio-temporal Information Recombination Hypergraph Neural Network (STIR-HGNN) model to analyze how oil futures prices contribute to improving the accuracy of forecasting agricultural product prices. Findings indicate numerous connections between oil prices and agricultural futures prices, highlighting the significant role of oil prices in forecasting agricultural futures price movements. The empirical insights derived from this study serve as a valuable compass for futures market participants, urging them to leverage these findings to refine and optimize their market strategies, enhancing their capacity to navigate and capitalize on the intricate complexities inherent in these interconnected markets.

关键词:

Oil futures markets Agricultural futures prices forecast STIR-HGNN model VEC-DCC-MGARCH model

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhang, Wei]China Agr Univ, Coll Econ & Management, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China
  • [ 2 ] [Wu, Jiayi]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 3 ] [Wang, Shun]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China
  • [ 4 ] [Zhang, Yong]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

通讯作者信息:

  • [Zhang, Yong]Beijing Univ Technol, Beijing Inst Artificial Intelligence, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Beijing Key Lab Multimedia & Intelligent Software, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China

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来源 :

INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

ISSN: 1057-5219

年份: 2025

卷: 97

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SCOPUS被引频次: 1

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