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The index system of comprehensive risk assessment for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established from the following aspects as earthquake and engineering geology, external and internal factors of water supply network, water quality, and so on. According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness, fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information, Monte-Carlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers, and then an aggregative risk assessment method using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers for seismic performance of urban water distribution system was established. The application results showed that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods, and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different seismic performance of urban water distribution system affected by many uncertainty factors.
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