Motor　vehicle　emission　has　become　one　of　the　important　factors　affecting　air　quality　in　China＇s　megacities,　and　many　cities　have　taken　various　control　measures　to　reduce　the　vehicular　emissions.　Taken　Beijing　as　a　case,　we　assessed　the　reduction　potential　of　different　control　strategies　and　policies　using　the　scenario　analysis.　First,　the　future　vehicle　population　was　predicted　based　on　the　Gompertz　model　and　dynamic　vehicle　age　distribution.　The　designed　scenarios　included　the　Business-as-usual　(BAU),　the　regulations　of　light-duty　passenger　vehicles　(LDVs)　population,　emission　standards　updating,　elimination　of　high-emission　vehicles　and　promotion　of　new　energy　vehicles.　The　emission　reduction　of　CO,　NOx,　HC,　PM10on　the　six　scenarios　in　future　years　(2011-2020)　were　estimated　using　the　emission　factor　and　activity　level.　The　results　showed　that,　the　scenario　of　LDVs　population　regulation　can　significantly　reduce　CO,　HC,　PM10,　by　7.81%,　9.88%　and　5.78%　respectively　in　2020　compared　with　2010.　Emission　standards　updating　scenario　would　achieve　a　substantial　reduction　for　all　the　pollutants,　especially　for　NOxand　PM10.The　reduction　proportion　amounted　to　21.19%　and　24.67%.　The　elimination　of　high-emission　vehicles　can　more　effectively　reduce　emissions　in　a　short-term　than　in　a　long-term.　Due　to　the　limitations　of　economic　and　technical　levels,　the　reduction　effect　of　promotion　of　new　energy　vehicles　would　not　be　significant.　The　integrated　scenario　considering　all　the　control　measures　would　achieve　the　maximum　emission　reduction,　and　it　can　reduce　emissions　of　CO,　NOx,　HC,　PM10by　29.45%,　42.54%,　28.04%,　41.30%　respectively　compared　with　BAU　scenario　in　2020.　The　quantity　amounts　to　2.81×105,　0.63×104,　3.77×104,　0.17×104t　of　four　pollutants　in　2020　compared　with　the　base　year　2010.　The　results　can　provide　a　useful　scientific　support　for　decision-making　of　local　vehicle　pollution　control　measures.