Effect　of　vehicular　emission　control　measures　in　future　years　(2011~2020)　was　assessed　based　on　the　scenario　analysis　in　Beijing.　The　conventional　pollutants　emissions　of　motor　vehicle　in　three　kinds　of　control　measures　scenarios　in　future　years　have　been　estimated,　which　compared　with　the　Business-as-usual　(BAU)　scenario　to　calculate　the　emission　reduction.　The　results　indicated　that　although　the　Beijing　motor　vehicle　population　would　have　a　certain　growth,　emission　control　measures　would　get　significant　effect.　The　elimination　of　high-emission　vehicles　achieved　the　largest　reduction　in　all　of　single　measures.　The　light-duty　vehicle　elimination　can　effectively　reduce　CO　emission,　and　the　contribution　rate　was　89.4%;　Similarly,　the　heavy-duty　vehicle　elimination　can　reduce　NOx,　HC　and　PM10　effectively,　and　the　contribution　rate　would　reach　65.5%,　55.8%　and　93.4%　respectively.　The　implementation　of　new　emission　standard　for　heavy-diesel　vehicle　also　had　obvious　effect,　and　the　four　kinds　of　pollutants　can　reduce　effectively.　The　effect　of　the　integrated　scenario　considering　all　the　control　measures　was　remarkable,　the　reducing　rate　of　CO,　NOx,　HC,　PM10　were　46.4%,　42.1%,　8.6%　and　50.6%　respectively.