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作者:

Wang, Jun-Lei (Wang, Jun-Lei.) | Sun, Xiao-Duan (Sun, Xiao-Duan.) | He, Yu-Long (He, Yu-Long.) | Hou, Shu-Zhan (Hou, Shu-Zhan.)

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摘要:

From the points of macroscopic factors such as economic development level, population number, vehicle ownership and road condition, the regularities of traffic accidents at home and abroad were analyzed. The relations among per capita GDP and vehicle ownership per 1 000 population, mortality per 10000 vehicles, mortality per 100 000 population were studied. Based on macroscopic econometrics and Cobb-Douglas function, the panel data model of traffic accident was set up by using the historical data in seven countries. Fixed effect model and random effect model were used to estimate parameters respectively, Hausman test was carried out, and the macroscopic econometrics models of traffic accidents for the seven countries were set up. Calculation result shows that among the parameters of traffic accidents, mortality per 100000 population is negative correlation with per capita GDP and per capita road length, mortality per 100000 population is positive correlation with vehicle ownership per 1000 population. Through Hausman test, chi-square distribution value is 3.91 when freedom is 3, the probability is 0.02 and less than the confidence level which is 0.05. Compared with the random effect model, all the confidence levels of variables for fixed effect model are less than 0.05, and the goodness of fit is better. So the fixed effect model is effective.

关键词:

Accidents Economics Probability distributions Random processes Roads and streets Statistics Vehicles

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Wang, Jun-Lei]Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • [ 2 ] [Sun, Xiao-Duan]Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • [ 3 ] [Sun, Xiao-Duan]School of Civil Engineering, University of Louisiana, Lafayette 70504, LA, United States
  • [ 4 ] [He, Yu-Long]Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
  • [ 5 ] [Hou, Shu-Zhan]Transportation Research Center, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China

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来源 :

Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

ISSN: 1671-1637

年份: 2012

期: 2

卷: 12

页码: 70-75,92

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