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作者:

Zhou, Yu-Wen (Zhou, Yu-Wen.) (学者:周玉文) | Wang, Ming-Ming (Wang, Ming-Ming.) | Zhao, Shu-Qi (Zhao, Shu-Qi.) | Wang, Lei (Wang, Lei.)

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摘要:

Based on 53 years observed data of rainfall in Beijing, the annual maximum series method, the annual exceedance series method, the partial duration series (rainfall depth over threshold) method and the annual multi-sampling series method were separately used to process rainfall depth data. Four candidate distributions (log normal, Pearson III, log Pearson III and Gumbel) were used to fit the observed data and find the most appropriate distribution. Distribution parameters were estimated using the moment method. The assessment was based on the Chi-Squared test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test combined with root mean squared error. On the basis of these comparisons and estimation results, it can be concluded that, if the length of rainfall records is shorter or selected return period is less than one year, the annual multi-sampling series method is proposed, otherwise, the annual maximum series method is proposed. The Pearson III distribution is the most appropriate distribution for Beijing rainfall data.

关键词:

Computational complexity Curve fitting Mean square error Method of moments Parameter estimation Probability distributions Rain

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Zhou, Yu-Wen]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
  • [ 2 ] [Wang, Ming-Ming]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhao, Shu-Qi]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China
  • [ 4 ] [Wang, Lei]College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100022, China

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来源 :

Journal of Beijing University of Technology

ISSN: 0254-0037

年份: 2008

期: 10

卷: 34

页码: 1111-1115

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