A　mobile　Ad-Hoc　network　is　a　multi-hop　wireless　network,　where　nodes　communicate　with　each　other　without　any　pre-deployed　infrastructure.　Due　to　the　highly　dynamic　topology　and　absence　of　any　fixed　infrastructure　in　a　mobile　Ad-Hoc　network,　a　reconfiguration　of　the　system　is　often　unavoidable.　So,　it　is　vital　to　keep　the　topology　stable　as　long　as　possible.　First,　describing　briefly　the　characteristics　of　mobile　Ad　Hoc　networks,　the　related　works　is　compared.　It　is　shown　that　most　of　the　predicting　algorithms　are　not　suited　to　the　application　for　routing　under　consideration.　And　then,　to　keep　the　topology　stable,　a　fuzzy　linear　regression　model　to　predict　a　more　long-live　link　for　routing　in　a　mobile　Ad　Hoc　network　(MANET)　is　studied　and　a　framework　for　analytical　modeling　of　the　path　reliability　is　provided.　Analytical　results　show　that　to　reduce　link　failure　probability,　we　should　select　long-live　link　as　far　as　possible.　Compared　with　AODV　routing　protocol,　simulation　results　show　that　the　protocol　has　high　packet　delivery　ratio　with　low　control　overhead.