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作者:

Mang, Chen (Mang, Chen.) | Chen, Yunli (Chen, Yunli.)

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EI

摘要:

With the introduction of the concept of 'Intelligent Transport', in order to meet the needs of high accuracy of flight delay prediction in the transportation industry in the current stage, a short-term flight delay prediction model based on multi-model fusion is proposed in this paper. The data used in this study come from the official data of Ctrip. First of all, the model in this paper extracts and normalizes the urban weather information, time information, airline information, delay information and average information, and solves the over-fitting problem. Then, add L2 regularization to solve the over-fitting problem. Finally, the fusion prediction model proposed in this paper is used to cross-verify and predict the integrated data. The structure of the fusion model based on stacking proposed in this paper extracts the advantages of both random forest, XGBoost and LightGBM, constructs it by using the method of cross-validation, and combines multiple models to judge the results for secondary training. This method can not only enhance robustness but also better resist over-fitting. According to the experimental results, the prediction accuracy and stability of flight delay are improved by using this model. © 2020 IEEE.

关键词:

Air traffic control Decision trees Forecasting Predictive analytics

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Mang, Chen]Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 2 ] [Chen, Yunli]Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

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年份: 2020

页码: 720-725

语种: 英文

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WoS核心集被引频次: 0

SCOPUS被引频次: 2

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