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作者:

Leng, Yu (Leng, Yu.) | Lu, Zhao-Hui (Lu, Zhao-Hui.) | Zhao, Yan-Gang (Zhao, Yan-Gang.) | Li, Chun-Qing (Li, Chun-Qing.)

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EI Scopus

摘要:

Time-dependent reliability analysis of deteriorating structures is significant in their performance assessment and maintenance. Various methodologies have been used by researchers to predict the time-dependent reliability of structures. However, it is still a challenge to estimate the small time-dependent failure probability in high dimensions. In the present study, based on subset simulation an adaptive stochastic simulation procedure is proposed considering the stochastic nature of the occurrence of time-dependent random variables. Moreover, a modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is developed to reduce repeated trajectories and suit the property of time-dependent reliability problem. Fourth-moment transformation is utilized in the study for without the exclusion of random variables with unknown probability distributions. The proposed method is illustrated by a cantilever tube subjected to external forces and torsion. The methodology can be used as a tool for structural engineers and asset managers to assess small time-dependent failure probability of a deteriorating structure in high dimensions and make decisions with regard to its maintenance and rehabilitation. © 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019. All rights reserved.

关键词:

Random variables Probability distributions Stochastic systems Stochastic models Reliability analysis Safety engineering Failure (mechanical)

作者机构:

  • [ 1 ] [Leng, Yu]School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China
  • [ 2 ] [Lu, Zhao-Hui]Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
  • [ 3 ] [Zhao, Yan-Gang]Department of Architecture, Kanagawa University, Yokohama, Japan
  • [ 4 ] [Li, Chun-Qing]School of Engineering, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne; VIC; 3000, Australia

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年份: 2019

语种: 英文

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